Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
Aug. 11th, 2004 04:13 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
arysteiaOne of my favourite fallacies: after this, therefore because of it.
Here follows a list of recent events in chronological order:
1) Several Israeli citizens were wanted by the police in Australia, and by extension New Zealand, for dealing in counterfeit Australian and New Zealand passports.
2) Two Israelis were arrested, and eventually convicted, for falsely applying for a real New Zealand passport in the name of a living, though incapacitated, cerebral palsy sufferer.
3) Allegations were made that, far from being mere private criminals as they insisted, these men were in fact Mossad agents, on Israeli state business.
4) The NZ government demanded an apology from Israel for this fairly egregious invasion of sovereignty. Israel declined.
5) The NZ government cut off high level contact with Israel till the matter could be resolved.
6) Hamas praised NZ as a friend on its website. Prime Minister Helen Clark responded that her actions had nothing to do with the Israel/Palestine question, and were limited to the situation at hand.
7) Holocaust denier David Irving was invited to speak at a Press Club luncheon in NZ.
8) David Irving was automatically refused entry to NZ as he had been previously deported from a like minded country (Canada) as specified in the Immigration Act.
9) Person or persons unknown smashed the gravestones of various early settlers in the Jewish section of the historic Bolton Street Cemetery in central Wellington.
10) Person or persons unknown burnt down a chapel and knocked over many headstones in the Jewish section at Makara, the main Wellington cemetery.
11) Right thinking New Zealanders were horrified and appalled!
12) Parliament reflected the national feeling by passing a unanimous condemnation [if you think it's hard to do anything bi-partisan in the USA, try getting six parties to concur on anything] and forwarded it officially to the Israeli government.
13) David Irving decided to fuel the fires by offering a reward for information.
14) David Irving announced he intends to lauch a challenge to Immigration NZ's denial of entry, and vowed he would come and speak.
15) A letter to the editor in today's paper from a Jewish American blamed the NZ government's hysterical overreaction to the petty spy scandal for fomenting anti-semitism.
Now, my question is: Where is the causal evidence that these events are linked? Some are, plainly. But all? Why are people who should know better insisting on jumping to conclusions and making rash statements without evidence?
More than anything, I feel embarrassed today, because I know that photos of the desecrated cemeteries are winging their way around the world. I'm angry too though, because the actions of a few lone malcontents are not indicative of a nation and should not be portrayed as so being.
I'm also torn, as is often the case, on the issue of free speech. I think David Irving's a hack, and an extremely poor historian. I find his views repellent, and the uses to which they are put dangerous. But I think I'd probably go to hear him speak, if I had the opportunity, if only to do my best to tear down his argument.
The fact is, however, he wasn't denied entry on the basis of his beliefs. He was denied because he'd already been deported from Canada. And I *am* a little perturbed that we just followed the line, instead of making up our own minds. Seems like an abdication of responsibility there.
Lastly... I don't think it *is* an overreaction for our government to be annoyed about the passport thing. We're *all* annoyed about the passport thing. *I* am annoyed about the passport thing. My New Zealand passport is precious. Not because I'm a patriot, but because I'm a traveller. I travel a lot. And New Zealanders are welcome almost everywhere. We reap the benefits of our reputation. Using NZ passports for spying and illegal activities will only damage that.
Here follows a list of recent events in chronological order:
1) Several Israeli citizens were wanted by the police in Australia, and by extension New Zealand, for dealing in counterfeit Australian and New Zealand passports.
2) Two Israelis were arrested, and eventually convicted, for falsely applying for a real New Zealand passport in the name of a living, though incapacitated, cerebral palsy sufferer.
3) Allegations were made that, far from being mere private criminals as they insisted, these men were in fact Mossad agents, on Israeli state business.
4) The NZ government demanded an apology from Israel for this fairly egregious invasion of sovereignty. Israel declined.
5) The NZ government cut off high level contact with Israel till the matter could be resolved.
6) Hamas praised NZ as a friend on its website. Prime Minister Helen Clark responded that her actions had nothing to do with the Israel/Palestine question, and were limited to the situation at hand.
7) Holocaust denier David Irving was invited to speak at a Press Club luncheon in NZ.
8) David Irving was automatically refused entry to NZ as he had been previously deported from a like minded country (Canada) as specified in the Immigration Act.
9) Person or persons unknown smashed the gravestones of various early settlers in the Jewish section of the historic Bolton Street Cemetery in central Wellington.
10) Person or persons unknown burnt down a chapel and knocked over many headstones in the Jewish section at Makara, the main Wellington cemetery.
11) Right thinking New Zealanders were horrified and appalled!
12) Parliament reflected the national feeling by passing a unanimous condemnation [if you think it's hard to do anything bi-partisan in the USA, try getting six parties to concur on anything] and forwarded it officially to the Israeli government.
13) David Irving decided to fuel the fires by offering a reward for information.
14) David Irving announced he intends to lauch a challenge to Immigration NZ's denial of entry, and vowed he would come and speak.
15) A letter to the editor in today's paper from a Jewish American blamed the NZ government's hysterical overreaction to the petty spy scandal for fomenting anti-semitism.
Now, my question is: Where is the causal evidence that these events are linked? Some are, plainly. But all? Why are people who should know better insisting on jumping to conclusions and making rash statements without evidence?
More than anything, I feel embarrassed today, because I know that photos of the desecrated cemeteries are winging their way around the world. I'm angry too though, because the actions of a few lone malcontents are not indicative of a nation and should not be portrayed as so being.
I'm also torn, as is often the case, on the issue of free speech. I think David Irving's a hack, and an extremely poor historian. I find his views repellent, and the uses to which they are put dangerous. But I think I'd probably go to hear him speak, if I had the opportunity, if only to do my best to tear down his argument.
The fact is, however, he wasn't denied entry on the basis of his beliefs. He was denied because he'd already been deported from Canada. And I *am* a little perturbed that we just followed the line, instead of making up our own minds. Seems like an abdication of responsibility there.
Lastly... I don't think it *is* an overreaction for our government to be annoyed about the passport thing. We're *all* annoyed about the passport thing. *I* am annoyed about the passport thing. My New Zealand passport is precious. Not because I'm a patriot, but because I'm a traveller. I travel a lot. And New Zealanders are welcome almost everywhere. We reap the benefits of our reputation. Using NZ passports for spying and illegal activities will only damage that.
